COVID-19 and Urban Futures: Impacts on Business Closures in Miami-Dade County

The COVID-19 pandemic altered the local economic geographies of many U.S. cities, and it remains unclear how long these changes will persist. This study analyzed the sociospatial dynamics of business closures in Miami-Dade County, Florida, from August 2020 to August 2021 with an explicit focus on reconciling the pandemic's effects in the context of location theory. We found that traditional urban centers and transit-concentrated areas experienced disproportionately higher rates of business closures during the study period, suggesting a potential wave of commercial suburbanization in Miami. Middle-class and working-class Hispanic neighborhoods suffered the most business closures. The results of correlation analysis and spatial regression models suggested a positive association between the incidence of COVID-19 cases and business closures at both zip code and individual business levels. These results also beckon a revaluation of the role of certain urban externalities in traditional location theory. The importance of automobile accessibility and agglomeration effects are poised to persist beyond the pandemic, but the benefits of proximity to the public transport system might decline. The trends observed in Miami suggest that the pandemic could generate more automobile-reliant employment subcenters in U.S. cities and amplify problems of intraurban inequality and urban sprawl. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] La pandemia del COVID-19 alteró las geografías económicas locales de muchas ciudades de los Estados Unidos, y aún no hay claridad por cuánto tiempo más persistirán estos cambios. Este estudio analizó la dinámica socioespacial del cierre de negocios en el Condado de Miami-Dade, Florida, de agosto del 2020 hasta agosto del 2021, centrándose explícitamente en reconciliar los efectos de la pandemia dentro del contexto de la teoría locacional. Descubrimos que los centros urbanos tradicionales y las áreas de tránsito concentrado experimentaron tasas desproporcionadamente más altas de cierres de negocios durante el período del estudio, lo cual sugiere una ola potencial de suburbanización comercial en Miami. Los vecindarios hispánicos de clase media y de la clase trabajadora sufrieron al máximo de cierres de negocios. Los resultados del análisis de los modelos de correlación y regresión espacial sugirieron una asociación positiva entre la incidencia de los casos de COVID-19 y los cierres de negocios, tanto al nivel de los códigos zip como de los negocios individuales. Estos resultados también invitan a la revaluación del papel de ciertas externalidades urbanas en la teoría locacional tradicional. La importancia de la accesibilidad al automóvil y los efectos de la aglomeración muestran disposición a persistir más allá de la pandemia, opero los beneficios de la proximidad del sistema de transporte público podría declinar. La tendencia observada en Miami sugiere que la pandemia podría generar más subcentros de empleo dependientes del automóvil en las ciudades americanas y ampliar los problemas de desigualdad intraurbana y la dispersión urbana. (Spanish) [ FROM AUTHOR] COVID-19疫情改变了美国许多城市的地方经济地理。目前, 尚不清楚这些变化会持续多久。本研究分析了2020年8月至2021年8月期间佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县商业倒闭的社会空间变化, 根据区位理论探讨了对疫情影响的缓解。我们发现, 在此期间, 传统的城市中心和交通密集地区经历了不成比例的更高的商业倒闭率, 这表明迈阿密可能会出现商业郊区化浪潮。西班牙裔中产阶级和工人阶级社区出现了最多的商业倒闭。相关性分析和空间回归模型结果表明, 在邮政编码尺度和个体尺度, COVID-19发病率与商业倒闭都存在着正相关性。这些结果也呼吁, 需要重新评估某些城市外部特性在传统区位理论中的作用。汽车可及性和聚集效应的重要性将会一直持续到疫情之后, 但公共交通系统的临近优势可能会下降。迈阿密的趋势表明, COVID-19可能会在美国城市产生更多依赖于汽车的就业分中心, 加剧城市内部不平等、城市扩张等问题。 (Chinese) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Annals of the American Association of Geographers is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

COVID-19 and Urban Futures: Impacts on Business Closures in Miami-Dade County

The COVID-19 pandemic altered the local economic geographies of many U.S. cities, and it remains unclear how long these changes will persist. This study analyzed the sociospatial dynamics of business closures in Miami-Dade County, Florida, from August 2020 to August 2021 with an explicit focus on reconciling the pandemic’s effects in the context of location theory. We found that traditional urban centers and transit-concentrated areas experienced disproportionately higher rates of business closures during the study period, suggesting a potential wave of commercial suburbanization in Miami. Middle-class and working-class Hispanic neighborhoods suffered the most business closures. The results of correlation analysis and spatial regression models suggested a positive association between the incidence of COVID-19 cases and business closures at both zip code and individual business levels. These results also beckon a revaluation of the role of certain urban externalities in traditional location theory. The importance of automobile accessibility and agglomeration effects are poised to persist beyond the pandemic, but the benefits of proximity to the public transport system might decline. The trends observed in Miami suggest that the pandemic could generate more automobile-reliant employment subcenters in U.S. cities and amplify problems of intraurban inequality and urban sprawl. © 2022 by American Association of Geographers.

COVID-19 and entrepreneurship entry and exit: Opportunity amidst adversity.

We theoretically and empirically examine how acquiring new skills and increased financial worries influenced entrepreneurship entry and exit intentions during the pandemic. To that end, we analyze primary individual-level survey data we collected in the aftermath of the COVID-19's first wave in Russia, which has had one of the highest COVID-19 infection rates globally. Our results show that acquiring new skills during the pandemic helped owners keep their existing businesses and encouraged start-ups in sectors other than information technology (IT). For IT start-ups, having previous experience matters more than new skills. While the pandemic-driven financial worries are associated with business closure intentions, they also inspire new business start-ups, highlighting the pandemic's creative destruction power. Furthermore, preferences for formal employment and remote work also matter for entrepreneurial intentions. Our findings enhance the understanding of entrepreneurship formation and closure in a time of adversity and suggest that implementing entrepreneurship training and upskilling policies during recurring waves of the COVID-19 pandemic can be an important policy tool for innovative small business development.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Ownership Across Racial/Ethnic Groups and Gender.

This study examined the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US older entrepreneurs' businesses using the Health and Retirement Study. We estimated logistic regression models to document the odds of experiencing economic impact. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected nearly 76% of US older entrepreneurs but has disproportionately impacted the businesses of Black, Hispanic, Asian/other races, and women entrepreneurs. Older Black entrepreneurs had significantly higher odds of facing business closure (OR = 2.31, p < .01), implementing new procedures (OR = 2.44, p < .01), workers quitting (OR = 2.95, p < .001), and difficulty paying regular bills (OR = 2.88, p < .001) than their White counterparts. Older Hispanic entrepreneurs also had significantly higher odds of instituting new procedures (OR = 2.27, p < .05), workers quitting (OR = 2.26, p < .01), and difficulty paying regular bills (OR = 2.35, p < .01) than their White counterparts. Similarly, older Asian/other races entrepreneurs were significantly more likely to report difficulty paying regular bills since the start of the pandemic than their White counterparts (OR = 3.11, p < .01). Women entrepreneurs were significantly more likely to close their businesses than their male counterparts (OR = 2.11, p < .001). These significant associations persisted after controlling for confounders. Support for underserved racial/ethnic groups and older women entrepreneurs should focus on accessibility to financial services, capital, and support packages as well as legislative support for ensuring business continuity and success.

State containment measures, living arrangements, and mental health of U.S. older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Early in the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. states implemented several different types of containment measures to slow the disease's spread. Early evidence indicates containment measures were associated with changes in individuals' mental health. This study explores the associations between U.S. state containment measures and older adults' mental health and importantly, whether the associations vary by living arrangement and gender. METHODS: The study analyzed national sample of adults aged 50 or older from 12 waves (April-July 2020) of the U.S. Household Pulse Survey (N = 394,934). State fixed-effects models linked four state containment measures (stay-at-home order, restaurant closure, bar closure, and movie theater closure) to levels of depression and anxiety across different types of living arrangements, net of controls. Men and women were analyzed separately. RESULTS: Stay-at-home order and restaurant and bar closure, but not movie theater closure, were associated with higher levels of depression and anxiety in older adults. Living arrangements moderated the associations for women but not men. For women, compared to living alone, living with a spouse or intergenerational family was associated with higher levels of anxiety and depression during stay-at-home order and restaurant closure. CONCLUSION: The associations between containment measures and mental health vary by type of living arrangement and were gendered, likely because household situations create different demands and supports that men and woman experience differently. Although containment measures are necessary to protect public health, paying attention to these underlying dynamics can inform policymakers' efforts to implement policies that balance harms and benefits for older adults.

Policy Interventions, Social Distancing, and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the United States: A Retrospective State-level Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay-at-home orders and school closures have been employed to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study measures the impact of social distancing policies on COVID-19 transmission in US states during the early outbreak phase to assess which policies were most effective. METHODS: To measure transmissibility, we analyze the average effective reproductive number (Rt) in each state the week following its 500th case and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time to 100 deaths with several healthcare infrastructure control variables. RESULTS: States with stay-at-home orders in place at the time of their 500th case were associated with lower average Rt the following week compared to states without them (p<0.001) and significantly less likely to have an Rt>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01-0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17-0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.53, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Stay-at-home orders had the largest effect of any policy analyzed. Multivariate analyses with cellphone tracking data suggest social distancing adherence drives these effects. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics.

Associations of Small Business Closure and Reduced Urban Mobility with Mental Health Problems in COVID-19 Pandemic: a National Representative Sample Study.

It is suggested that the nationwide social distancing due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has adverse mental health consequences despite its necessity. We investigated the associations of social distancing measures with mental health problems. Using national representative sample of 509,062 adults in the USA, we examined the associations of small business closure and reduced urban mobility with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depression disorder (MDD). Multilevel regression models were fitted with individual, household, and state-level covariates, in addition to state and census-region-level random effects. Living in state with the highest quartile of small business closures was associated with increased prevalence of GAD (OR: 1.06; CI: 1.03-1.11) compared to lowest quartile, but had no association with MDD. Living in the highest quartile of urban mobility was associated with lower prevalence of both GAD (OR: 0.88; CI: 0.85-0.93) and MDD (OR: 0.90; CI: 0.86-0.95) relative to the lowest quartile. Our findings suggest that small business closures and reduced mobility during COVID-19 pandemic were negatively associated with the two mental health outcomes in the USA, despite their important roles in preventing the infection.